You know the old twisty question… If a tree falls in the forest, and nobody hears it fall, did it make a sound?
How about taking this old saying and relating it about risk... If a risk is there and nobody sees it, is it there at all?
Denying the undeniable.
The way the human mind works, risks can play some pretty clever tricks on us. The world is full of varying levels of risk, and one can’t just walk around worrying about them all the time. We go through high risk experiences and if nothing happens to us, we sometimes interpret it as proof that the risk is minor and manageable. However, risk size is not the determining factor of whether an “event” occurs or not.. Don’t confuse luck with facts.
Take for example the famous incident of the space shuttle Columbia and the faulty O-Rings. There was a lot of talk in NASA at the time about the O-Rings and their sensitivity to low temperatures. The matter was discussed many times and was even the topic of a late night conference call before the day of the launch. There are many organizational, behavioral and engineering reasons that all contributed to the catastrophic explosion. However, one of the key facts that caused NASA to make the wrong decision (launch with suspicious o-rings as opposed to delaying the launch until the o-rings issue was fixed) was the fact that a few space missions had taken off successfully with the faulty o-rings in the past. Suddenly the risk was assessed as minor and manageable because no incident had occurred in the past. The reality was that a disaster was waiting to happen.
It’s built into the system.
Imagine the human body. Many of the diseases or illnesses we may suffer from in
the future already exist within our bodies. As we get older, because of other health issues, nutrition, stress, etc. , these sleepy agents spring to life and become active.
The same thing happens in complex systems involving technology, software, hardware, machinery, engineering, design and people. The seeds or agents of disaster are built into the system. In a well designed system they are all at check. However, should something happen to tip the scales, the whole system can spin out of control and “potential” risk becomes very real.
The fact that the systems or experiences we go through in life started and ended smoothly and without a hitch should not mislead us to believe they are not full of hidden risks. The key to reduce and avoid risk is to keep a few steps ahead of the game. Know which levels of risks are involved and what agents are waiting in the shadows can help you be more prepared to maintain a safe system.
What could possibly go wrong?
Take the everyday act of driving as an example. We drive every day, mostly on the same routes we know by heart. Cars are relatively safe and the roads are well maintained. Roundabouts, road signs, street lights and a multitude of other pieces of equipment and engineering are all there to help the traffic move swiftly and safely. It seems pretty safe.
That is true for as long as everything works. But should one component in the system break out of line - say the car in front of me suddenly stops in the middle of the highway - and I did not keep a safe distance, the situation changes and deteriorates quite rapidly.
A host of hidden agents spring into action and attack the system. Suddenly that passenger in the back sit that didn’t put his seat belt on becomes a one-ton weight flying inside the car. Suddenly those old tires that you know you had to change couldn’t provide enough grip and maintain a short stopping distance. All of a sudden the driver behind you that knew he was tired, but still decided to keep on driving, couldn’t quite react in time.
The risks are built into the system. The agents are all there. A little bit of carelessness combined with a deviation from the norm, and havoc breaks loose.
Naturally we can’t walk around all day worrying about these things, but we do need to know they are there. We need to enjoy the safety of the systems around us, but at the same time be mindful of their complexity and possibilities of a sudden meltdown.
In such complex systems in which we live, what can we do to keep ahead of the game?
- Keep a safe distance
- Read the traffic: Pay attention to those around you and ahead of you to identify risky situations at an early stage
- Avoid pushing the envelope
- Leave yourself enough time to react
- Don’t fall into the trap of believing that because you got away with it once, it’s safe to repeat
- Remember the o rings!
Drive safely, it’s worth it,
Hod Fleishman,
Founder and Senior Vice President of Business Development, Green Road
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